ELN Guerrilla members. Image: cortesy of pacifista.tv
Even though Colombia signed a peace deal with the FARC
rebels in 2016, armed conflict in the country is not yet over. Another rebel
group, the National Liberation Army (ELN – Ejército
de Liberación Nacional, in
Spanish), the country’s now-largest guerrilla organisation, is still alive and
kicking.
Since the demobilisation of the FARC, remote parts of the country have
witnessed increased violence, as guerrillas – most notably the ELN – and
criminal groups compete for the control of territories left behind by the FARC,
including access to drug-trafficking routes. In fact, Colombia’s coca acreage
for cocaine production is at an all-time high, despite
government efforts to eradicate plants.
Former President Juan Manuel Santos began formal peace
negotiations with the ELN in 2017, but in September 2018 newly-elected
President Iván Duque called
home the negotiation team from
Havana, pointing to the ELN’s continued involvement in kidnapping and their
refusal to free hostages. Meanwhile, the rebels’ negotiation team – still in Cuba
– insists that they are committed to negotiating peace and are waiting for the
government to send a new delegation.
Santos’ negotiations with the ELN reached their zenith in September 2017,
when both parties agreed to a 4-month bilateral ceasefire. This was the first
of its kind since the rebel group was created in the 1960s.
The rebels’ negotiation team – still in Cuba – insists that they are committed to negotiating peace and are waiting for the government to send a new delegation.
Following the end
of the ceasefire –largely respected by both sides – the insurgents resumed
violent activity in January 2018. They bombed oil
pipelines and attacked military installations and police stations, affecting the
civilian population and killing and injuring several members of the forces of
the state.
Ultimately, Santos suspended the talks, claiming inconsistencies between
the ELN’s words of peace and actions of war. Negotiations began again in Cuba
in May 2018, with the aim of forging another truce. Despite some advancements, the
parties were unable to agree to another ceasefire.
Negotiating with a
“terrorist group”?
Colombia’s new president Iván Duque has been openly critical of the
negotiations. In his inaugural speech, he announced that he would take 30 days
to evaluate the past 17 months of talks and decide whether to continue with the
process.
These 30 days have passed, leaving the future of negotiations more
uncertain than ever. In September Duque dissolved the negotiation team in
Havana. Later on, while in New York for the United Nations General Assembly, he
referred to the rebels as a “terrorist group” and reaffirmed that his
government was open to resuming dialogue only
when the ELN releases all remaining hostages and ends
participation in all criminal activity.
This has been the position of the government since then.
In response, the ELN has released damning statements claiming that
Duque’s government is revealing its bellicose tendencies, and they have reached out to the Senate’s newly created peace commission urging
them help the negotiation to advance.
The rebels’ delegation in Havana even suggested they would be open to discussing Duque’s demands
(i.e. releasing hostages and suspending all military activity), but stressed
that any new set of conditions need to be discussed at the negotiation table,
and not defined unilaterally by the new government.
On 18 December, the ELN tweeted their desire for 2019 to bring peace for Colombia and later
declared a 12-day unilateral ceasefire from 23 December-3 January to
“contribute to a climate of tranquility at Christmas and the New Year.”
What do Colombians want?
The messages sent by the government conflict with what most Colombians
want. The most recent
Gallup poll (fielded in October 2018), which measures the
perceptions of Colombians living in five of the country’s major cities, show
that 64% of those surveyed think that negotiations should begin again.
Not only
are these figures substantial in their own right, they also show a clear upward
trend, steadily increasing from 50% in February 2018, reaching almost 70% in
June.
One does not need to be an ELN-supporter to believe the government should sit down and continue negotiating.
Opponents to the peace negotiations have suggested that only those who
are sympathetic to the ELN support the peace negotiations with the insurgents.
Poll
figures clearly show that this is not the case. Indeed, 93% of the people surveyed by Gallup reported
a negative (desfavorable) opinion of
the insurgent group, which implies a considerable overlap with those who are
calling the government to resume talks. One does not need to be an
ELN-supporter to believe the government should sit down and continue
negotiating.
The voices from the margins
The opinions and attitudes from Colombian cities were confirmed by our
conversations with community members from marginalised regions with high ELN
presence (and where polls usually do not arrive)—notwithstanding the country’s stark
urban-rural divide.
Colombians want to see the negotiations to resume in 2019.
For example, in Arauca — a department with a historically high presence
of the ELN — a government official noted that the peace process with the FARC
meant that the military could increase its presence in the region, that there
were no cases of intimidation during the presidential elections, and that
criminality has gone down overall.
However, he also stressed that the ELN is
still active in the area and continues to threaten the security of the
communities living there. Therefore, he hopes that a similar process with the
ELN will serve to increase security in this region and thus believes that the
new government should resume the talks.
A civil society leader from the department echoed these messages. Recognising
that security conditions have improved since the demobilisation of the FARC,
she noted that the ELN continue to harass, intimidate, and enact violence in
the communities in which she works, including forced recruitment and homicide.
Therefore, she was clear in voicing her opinion that ongoing negotiations
should continue. In her view, this will allow the region to finally experience
“una paz completa” (a holistic peace). She
noted, “people are fed up… they want a peace process with the ELN.”
Duque won a majority of
votes in the department of Arauca. This further shows that Colombians who want
the government to continue negotiations with the ELN are not necessarily guerrilla
sympathisers. Regardless of whether people come from large cities or rural
areas, including regions where the ELN has had historical presence, Colombians
want to see the negotiations to resume in 2019.
When deciding his next move, Duque should pay attention to these
demands.
