Fake news, hate speech, and the consolidation of ‘outsider’
type candidates that pit themselves against traditional ways of doing politics were the elements that came together to produce the populist tendencies that
have recently taken centre stage in Latin America.
The strong presidential character of Latin American
political systems ensures that the personality of the candidate weighs in more
than their respective parties, favouring a dynamic where a connection between a
candidate and the people can weaken democratic institutions seen to be against
the personable leader.
Throughout 2018 we’ve seen 3 new presidents win elections in
Latin America that are building a path towards a change in the political cycle
in the region.
The hopefuls of the pink tide are being left behind, and the
uncertainty of the times ahead plague the majority of democracies around the
world due to authoritarian tendencies that have recently arisen.
In Colombia, the victory of Duque has consolidated the
tradition of the right-wing elite that has been governing the country for
decades.
In contrast, the recently inaugurated government of López Obrador in
Mexico has one of the most progressive political agendas seen in decades and
ends a long cycle of conservative politics in the country, however his demagogy
is a worry for democratic institutions. Finally, the worrying victory of Bolsonaro
in Brazil represents a hard blow for the left, democracy, and the PT in particular.
It’s in this post-electoral context full of contrasts that
we present a brief evaluation of each of the 3 new presidents that will come to
define the coming years in Latin America:
Duque: from inefficiency to unpopular
President Duque completed his first 100 days with an
extremely low approval rating. His victory is unquestionable, even though it
consolidated the left as a legitimate political opposition in the country for the very
first time. He has attempted to face up to the issue of the brutal murders of
social leaders, new corruption scandals, and the continuation of the peace
agreements for the FARC with little success.
His leadership has been weakened by the 22 murders of social
leaders since he has taken office, an issue which continues to call human
rights into question in Colombia.
This context of extreme violence arises in
the midst of uncertainty over the lack of political will to implement adequate
post conflict policies that can deliver.
Profound corruption scandals such as that of Odebrecht
continue to sweep across a government in which even the general prosecutor of
the nation may be implicated.
This monumental scandal has already derailed presidents in Brazil, Peru and Panama, and in Colombia it appears the elites continue to be swamped in a problem that corrodes democratic institutions and encourages impunity.
This monumental scandal has already derailed
presidents in Brazil, Peru and Panama, and in Colombia it appears the elites
continue to be swamped in a problem that corrodes democratic institutions and
encourages impunity.
Iván Duque hasn’t been able to capitalise on the window of
opportunity that the peace agreements have offered, nor the implementation
of the post-conflict settlements.
Questioning transitional justice,
interrupting dialogue with the ELN, the failure of the reinsertion of
ex-guerrillas and the abandoning of territory which has lead to the
proliferation of illegal crops, and violence at the hands of criminal groups are a few of the issues that have worsened under his leadership.
Finally, the Colombian president faces a growing opposition
that has taken to the streets to decry Duque and whose voices extend to
senators and deputies within the government. Everything indicates that we will
continue to experience tremors in Colombia in the coming years.
López Obrador, hope, resistance and uncertainty
The recently inaugurated Mexican president AMLO faces many
challenges if he wishes to carry out his campaign promises. The
disproportionate expectations that his campaign created, which he refers to as
the ‘fourth transformation’, are so high that now he must face growing
scepticism.
The pacification of the war on drugs is one of the most
urgent and difficult issues of his mandate. The objective to change conditions
on the ground with programs such as legalisation of the cultivation of
marihuana, or begin a process of amnesty for those imprisoned during the war if
they collaborate in the defeat of larger criminal networks contrasts with the
militarisation of the security forces also currently under way. This will no
doubt put democratic standards at risk.
His ambitious plan intends to put an end to corruption and to move forward with his republican austerity goals. Eliminating all governmental
luxuries starting with turning the official residence of the president into a
museum open to the public, cutting salaries by 60%, travelling in economy class
and selling the presidential plane, are all highly symbolic gestures but are
opposed by his political adversaries.
His proposal to reduce public salaries has found resistance
among the judges and the judiciary power of the country who have recently challenged
this measure in the courts.
These promises alongside AMLO’s tendency to convoke popular
referendums which are questionable in democratic terms show that the obstacles
that must be faced are significant. The hope of real change beyond populist
gestures remains high, but the AMLO earthquake will experience many counteractions.
Bolsonaro earthquake hits Brazil
With the election of Bolsonaro, referred to as “the myth” by his followers,
Brazil fell into a state of shock. The country now left completely polarised
and fragmented has seen its main left-wing force crash and burn.
The unexpected eruption of Bolsonaro represents an earthquake of collosal dimensions and it remains to be seen if the democratic institutions of Brazil are strong enough to contain him.
The promise to end violence was one of Bolsonaro’s main objectives during his campaign and the terrifying record of 63,880 murders in 2017
is intolerable for obvious reasons. However, it’s not entirely clear that
Bolsonaro’s strategy will in fact achieve this through worrying militarisation
and arms liberation proposals.
The figure of Bolsonaro has generated fear among many. In
the midst of an open international rejection of racist, homophobic and
anti-democratic postures, the eyes of the world are on the president who will
be inaugurated in January next year. We must remain alert so that the
democratic limits are not crossed and that human rights are respected.
The declarations of ministers up until now don’t provide
many reassurances. We must wait and remain attentive to what could occur next.
The unexpected eruption of Bolsonaro represents an earthquake of collosal
dimensions and it remains to be seen if the democratic institutions of Brazil
are strong enough to contain him.
This year has left many open questions regarding democracy
in the region. In the midst of a growing lack of confidence in democratic
institutions, parties and governments, 2018 has shown that the political
paradigms in the region are changing, and these new tendencies are reminders of
a very dark past that is yet to be forgotten.
Despite these processes of democratic decline, we have also
witnessed great displays of resistance and solidarity. We remember the
tremendous earthquake that hit Mexico in 2017 that brought the local population
together to rescue victims from under the rubble.
Another example of solidarity
can be round in the reaction to the great Venezuelan migrant crisis and the
growing phenomenon of migrant caravans that show that despite the change in
tendencies of 2018, there is still hope for Latin America.
