What a difference a summer makes.
As we entered the holiday period, the front-runners in the race for the European Commission presidency were France’s Michel Barnier and Finland’s Alexander Stubb — both high-profile members of the powerful European People’s Party (EPP).
But as the EPP nominations officially open this week, it’s the party’s leader in the European Parliament, Bavaria’s Manfred Weber, who is in pole position. With declarations of support from German Chancellor Angela Merkel and Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, Weber has shaken up the race to replace Jean-Claude Juncker.
There’s one big difference, however, between next year’s election and the last go-around. In 2014, the EPP and the Socialists entered a grand coalition and divvied up the top jobs between them. This time, not only is no party is expected to win more than 30 percent of the vote: no two parties are likely to win a combined 50 percent.
The intricacies of the Spitzenkandidat process aside (see here for an explainer), that means it will take a coalition of three or more parties to secure a majority in Parliament. And that broadens the race considerably.
Weber may be the leading candidate from the most powerful political group. But even if he does secure the EPP’s nomination, there’s no guarantee he’ll get the EU’s top job. He faces challenges from fellow Germans, and rivals from smaller countries and parties.
With no executive government experience, let alone time spent at EU summit tables, Weber will be vulnerable to being pushed aside in favor of a rival from the EPP or a member of one of the other traditional parties.
After all, it’s not like anyone outside Brussels and Bavaria knows who he is, in the way they have heard of French President Emmanuel Macron and Italian Interior Minister Matteo Salvini, two other leaders keen to cast themselves as the face of the 2019 election.
Indeed, if there’s one leader with momentum this summer, it’s Salvini. As leader of the far-right League party, he has no chance of securing the majorities he would need in the European Council and Parliament to become Commission president. But that needn’t stop him from declaring himself a candidate and using the platform to disrupt the race. The TV cameras will be sure to trail along.
Another rising force in the race are the Liberals. European Commissioner for Competition Margrethe Vestager is one possible Liberal champion, but the field is open, with the Alliance of Liberals and Democrats in Europe party not planning to declare a candidate until February.
There are advantages to holding back: It maximizes the group’s chances to work with, rather than against, their liberal fellow traveler French President Emmanuel Macron. And it gives the Liberals more time to test if sitting Prime Ministers Mark Rutte or Xavier Bettel (who faces an election October 14) are willing to stand.
The Socialists meanwhile have the wrong kind of momentum: downward. Their candidates are still nominally in the race, but mostly as auditions for other jobs: head of the European Parliament or a good post at the Commission.
Here’s the form guide for what’s shaping up to be an unexpectedly exciting race.
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Manfred Weber
Who? Chairman of the European People’s Party group in the European Parliament and deputy chairman of Bavaria’s Christian Social Union.
Age at time of European election: 46
Pros: He has been key to European People’s Party election campaigns and its parliamentary presence, and would signal a new era of EPP leadership. He could also have a better line to Central Europe than Juncker.
Cons: He would be a German Commission president alongside a German Commission secretary-general (Martin Selmayr) at a time when many are grumbling about German influence in Brussels.
Will he run? The internal EPP campaign is already underway.
Chances of EPP nomination: High
Chances of party coming first in Parliament election: High
Chances of securing Parliament support: High
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Peter Altmaier
Who? Germany’s federal minister for economic affairs and energy, a confidant of Chancellor Angel Merkel and part of her Christian Democratic Union.
Age at time of European election: 60
Pros: Altmaier has a direct line to Merkel and an intellect that could see him lead the Commission in the mold of Jacques Delors.
Cons: Currently responsible for Germany’s Nord Stream 2 policy, his star is hitched to a fading Merkel. As a German, he would also trigger concerns about German influence.
Will he run? Supporters floated a trial balloon in August to mixed reviews. He is more likely to run if Weber’s candidacy flails.
Chances of EPP nomination: Moderate
Chances of party coming first in Parliament election: High
Chances of securing European Parliament support: High
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Ursula von der Leyen
Who? German defense minister from the country’s largest party, the CDU, who has served continuously in Merkel’s government since 2005. Born and raised in Brussels, she practiced as a medical doctor prior to entering politics.
Age at time of European election: 60
Pros: Von der Leyen is a no-nonsense pragmatist, and would be the first female president of the Commission.
Cons: Her nomination would also fuel worries of too much German influence in Brussels.
Will she run? Probably not. She could also set her sights on NATO leadership.
Chances of EPP nomination: Moderate
Chances of party coming first in Parliament election: High
Chances of securing Parliament support: High
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Alexander Stubb
Who? A former Finnish prime minister and now vice president at the European Investment Bank, Stubb is known for playing against type: An outgoing, sporty, glamorous Finn who seems more at home among a cosmopolitan crowd than among his quiet compatriots.
Age at time of European election: 51
Pros: Stubb comes from a Nordic eurozone country, speaks five languages, and has been part of four EU institutions.
Cons: Finnish politicos and voters say it’s dangerous to get between Stubb and a TV camera, though for that reason many would also be glad to be rid of him if he goes to Brussels.
Will he run? The question is when, not if, he will throw his hat into the ring.
Chances of EPP nomination: Moderate
Chances of party coming first in Parliament election: High
Chances of securing Parliament support: High
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Michel Barnier
Who? Barnier is a French politician who’s done just about everything except lead France. Currently the EU’s chief Brexit negotiator, he has served as his country’s foreign, Europe, environment and agriculture minister. He put on the Winter Olympics, was twice European commissioner and narrowly lost the EPP nomination for Commission president to Jean-Claude Juncker in 2014.
Age at time of European election: 68
Pros: Barnier has broad experience in politics at local, national and EU levels. He’s also Brussels’ man of the moment — if Brexit negotiations succeed. A proven steady hand, Barnier is able to work with the likes of Margrethe Vestager and Martin Selmayr, and anyone in between.
Cons: He’s not a member of France’s ruling La République En Marche party and may struggle to secure support from his government as a result. He doesn’t speak German or represent a new approach to politics.
Will he run? Few in Brussels doubt Barnier is running. A grueling schedule of multiple visits to nearly all European capitals over the past two years and repeated appearances at foreign and security policy events have done nothing to dispel the idea.
Chances of EPP nomination: Low
Chances of party coming first in Parliament election: High
Chances of securing Parliament support: High
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Mark Rutte
Who? Three-term Dutch prime minister since 2010.
Age at time of European election: 52
Pros: Rutte is the Liberal who is liked by the conservatives and tolerated by his fellow Liberals. The fact that he’s from a generally progressive country will make him easier for Socialists to stomach.
Cons: Rutte’s party, the Alliance of Liberals and Democrats in Europe (ALDE), is big in the European Council but can hope for third place at best in the Spitzenkandidat race.
Will he run? As a sitting prime minister, Rutte will almost certainly not be an official candidate during the election season.
Chances of ALDE nomination: High, if he runs.
Chances of party coming first in Parliament election: Low
Chances of securing European Parliament support: High
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Antonio Tajani
Who? Tajani is president of the European Parliament. A former journalist and Italian government spokesperson, Tajani is a monarchist (Italy is a republic) whose first European role dates back to his election as MEP in 1994. He also served as a commissioner during both terms of the Barroso Commission (2008-2014).
Age on election day: 65
Pros: Tajani leads the institution that confirms the Commission president. He’s an old-school retail politician who is often underestimated but knows which palms to press and which egos to stroke.
Cons: He’s virtually no one’s first choice and widely perceived to lack a detailed policy vision. He’s also known for not having been particularly hard-working during his two stints in the Commission. Although he speaks English, French and Spanish, he is much more comfortable in his native Italian.
Will he run? Tajani has a track record of running for the highest office available to him at any given moment, from mayor of Rome (2001) to Italian prime minister (2018).
Chances of EPP nomination: Moderate
Chances of party coming first in Parliament election: High
Chances of securing Parliament support: High
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Enda Kenny
Who? Kenny is a former prime minister of Ireland (2011-2017). An Irish MP since the age of 24, he’s served 43 consecutive years in Parliament and held a string of ministerial posts dating back to 1986.
Pros: As national leader, Kenny led Ireland through several financial crises. He’s since retired from the government, meaning he (like Juncker in 2014) would be free to campaign full time. Ireland has not held a top European political office since Pat Cox led the Parliament from 2002-2004.
Cons: Like Barnier, Kenny represents an older generation, in marked contrast to the current Irish leader.
Age at time of European election: 68
Will he run? Kenny has kept his cards close to his chest.
Chances of EPP nomination: Low
Chances of party coming first in Parliament election: High
Chances of securing Parliament support: High
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Xavier Bettel
Who? Bettel is currently prime minister of Luxembourg.
Age at time of European election: 46
Pros: Bettel is popular among his European Council peers and represents a new generation of EU leadership. He would be the first openly gay Commission president.
Cons: He’d be the fourth Commission president from Luxembourg and the second in a row, after Juncker.
Will he run? That depends on the outcome of Luxembourg’s October election. Bettel scored an upset win in 2013, in the wake of a scandal that saw Jean-Claude Juncker resign his premiership. If Luxembourgers return to form, Bettel will be in the market for a new job just as the Liberals need a Spitzenkandidat.
Chances of Liberal nomination: Moderate
Chances of party coming first in Parliament election: Low
Chances of securing Parliament support: High
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Margrethe Vestager
Who? The EU’s competition czar is the European commissioner with the most star power. Vestager has graced a thousand power-lists thanks to bold use of her portfolio’s executive powers and is admired, feared and loathed in equal measure.
Age at time of European election: 51
Pros: The Danish commissioner is charismatic, accomplished, stylish and down-to-earth. She’s the communicator of campaign managers’ dreams — and the orator of speechwriters’ nightmares. Having Emmanuel Macron as a fan doesn’t hurt either.
Cons: She doesn’t have the support of her own government or a eurozone country, and is stuck in a party, ALDE, that holds less than 70 of the Parliament’s 751 seats. Her party in Denmark is only the second biggest liberal party in the country.
Will she run? Vestager is too smart to reveal her plans at this point. Her best chance is as a post-election compromise candidate.
Chances of ALDE or La Republique En Marche nomination: High
Chances of party coming first in Parliament election: None
Chances of securing Parliament support: High
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Maroš Šefčovič
Who? A long-serving European Commission vice president for the energy union, Šefčovič was the first person to officially declare his candidacy. He is a former Slovak diplomat who studied in Moscow in the 1980s and helped secure his country’s entry into the European Union.
Age at time of European election: 52
Pros: He would be the first Commission president from a Central or Eastern European country. As a two-term commissioner, he knows the EU system.
Cons: The Socialist machine is falling apart and although Šefčovič is seen as a clean politician, he comes from a country whose socialist government is mired in corruption scandals.
Will he run? Yes.
Chances of Socialist nomination: Moderate
Chances of party coming first in Parliament election: None
Chances of securing Parliament support: High
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Cecilia Malmström
Who? A former MEP and Europe minister for Sweden, Malmström is a high-profile European commissioner, currently for trade, with nine years’ experience.
Age at time of European election: 51
Pros: Malmström has a strong global profile thanks to her clashes with U.S. President Donald Trump’s administration and a successful record of striking trade deals. She speaks English, French, German, Italian, Spanish and Swedish.
Cons: She often finds herself in the shadow of fellow Scandi Liberal Margrethe Vestager.
Will she run? Never say never, although she is more likely to be a compromise candidate in the event of a brokered presidency nomination.
Chances of ALDE nomination: Moderate
Chances of party coming first in Parliament election: None
Chances of securing Parliament support: High
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Frans Timmermans
Who? He is first vice president of the European Commission and a former foreign minister of the Netherlands.
Age at time of European election: 58
Pros: Timmermans is a consummate European: multilingual, capable of soaring rhetoric, experienced across a range of European and global stages. Having served as Juncker’s right-hand man, in another era he might have been considered a natural successor.
Cons: A consummate European: Who wants that these days? He’s trailed by a string of complaints for his handling of key files in the Juncker Commission, including migration and the rule of law. He’s also a Socialist whose party is out of government in the Netherlands at a time when the left is falling apart across Europe.
Will he run? Most likely, if he can get the backing of his Liberal prime minister, Mark Rutte.
Chances of Socialist nomination: Moderate
Chances of party coming first in Parliament election: None
Chances of securing Parliament support: High
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Guy Verhofstadt
Who? A former Belgian prime minister, Verhofstadt was a candidate for the Commission presidency in 2004, until he was vetoed by Britain’s Tony Blair. Verhofstadt leads the liberal ALDE group in the European Parliament and serves as the institution’s Brexit coordinator.
Age at time of European election: 66
Pros: Verhofstadt speaks all the major European languages, and has held high office for more than 30 years at both national and EU level.
Cons: Verhofstadt’s ALDE is only the fourth-biggest party in the Parliament, and he is a divisive figure even within his own party. No one thinks his best days are ahead of him.
Will he run? Verhofstadt is both ALDE’s greatest strength and weakness. If Macron doesn’t form an alliance with ALDE before the election, his chances of running are high. If the French president weighs in with a preferred candidate or offers Verhofstadt another prize in exchange for dropping out, he may stay out of the race.
Chances of ALDE nomination: Moderate
Chances of party coming first in Parliament election: None
Chances of securing Parliament support: High
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Matteo Salvini
Who: Deputy prime minister of Italy, head of the far-right League party.
Age at time of European election: 46
Pros: Europe’s Donald Trump, if that’s your thing. Can inspire enthusiasm that only Emmanuel Macron and Catalan independence leaders can match in Europe.
Cons: Divisive and likely to inspire all the other candidates to come together and work against him.
Will he run? He has said he wants to lead a network of League copycats, and he knows his tide is rising.
Chances of Movement for a Europe of Nations and Freedom nomination: High
Chances of party coming first in Parliament election: Low, but rising if he can unite all Euroskeptic forces.
Chances of securing Parliament support: Zero, but he could provoke a constitutional crisis if his electoral alliance places first in the election.
CORRECTION: An earlier version of this article contained incorrect information about Peter Altmaier.
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