Continental dividing lines over Brexit came into sharper focus this weekend, revealing disagreements among leading political players over how to manage a divorce with the U.K.
On the one side are hawks, or to some the bad cops, in the form of the presidents of the European Commission and Parliament — Jean-Claude Juncker and Martin Schulz — along with the German foreign minister, Frank-Walter Steinmeier, and the French, who want a fast British break with the EU. “Make it hurt” is this option.
Brexit doves, or good cops, in Brussels include the leader of the third large EU institution, European Council President Donald Tusk, who claims to speak for all the EU member countries and counsels more understanding for Britain’s predicament in the wake of Thursday’s referendum to leave the bloc. “Be nice with poor David,” an EU official said, ironically referring to Prime Minister Cameron, who on Friday announced his resignation, effective by October.
The position of the other 27 EU countries on the how and when of Brexit will dominate the coming week in European politics. On Monday, Germany’s Chancellor Angela Merkel hosts the leaders of France and Italy in Berlin ahead of an EU summit in Brussels the following two days.
The immediate question before the 27 remaining countries is how to deal with a Britain whose people have voted to leave but whose government hasn’t yet formally asked for a split from the EU. Cameron and Boris Johnson, the former Conservative mayor of London who led the Leave campaign and aspires to replace the prime minister, have both said that Britain would wait until the autumn at least to invoke Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty, irrevocably starting a two-year clock on its exit from the EU.
During the campaign, proponents of Brexit proposed talks with the EU on a future relationship with the bloc before formally seeking divorce, giving the U.K. greater leverage. Continental leaders are reluctant to go for that, but disagree among themselves over how hard to push London.
Meeting in Berlin Saturday, the foreign ministers of the six original EU countries — Belgium, Germany, France, Italy, Luxembourg and the Netherlands — called on Cameron to hand in the paperwork within days, “as a question of respect,” as France’s Jean-Marc Ayrault put it.
Soon after, Merkel struck a different, more understanding tone. “To be honest, it shouldn’t take forever,” Merkel said when asked about her preferred timeline for Britain to invoke Article 50. “I wouldn’t want to waste energy arguing over a short period of time,” indicating that October was fine by her.
Black Friday in Brussels
These tensions played out in the hours after Cameron’s resignation at a meeting Friday in Juncker’s office at the Berlaymont building that started at 10:45 a.m. The Commission president was joined by Tusk, Schulz and Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte, whose country holds the rotating presidency of the Council of the EU.
The discussion quickly turned from the shock result of the referendum to their differing approaches to Brexit. The Commission president had earlier in June told Le Monde that “deserters won’t be welcomed back with open arms,” and stuck to that line in the Friday discussion, according to EU officials familiar with the conversation. Schulz considered it “scandalous” for Cameron to delay any notification, fuming later in an interview that Britain was “taking a whole Continent hostage.” On Sunday, in another interview, the Parliament president insisted Cameron invoke Article 50 this coming week.
Tusk and Rutte, who have both publicly warned about rising Euroskepticism across Europe, said they wanted the British dossier handled with care and opposed any push on Cameron to ask formally for divorce at this week’s EU summit during the meeting on Friday, according to EU officials.
While the hawks see a quick split as the best way to save the rump EU from further political and economic instability, the doves hope for a possible compromise with Britain that will preserve close cross-Channel trade and political ties.
The disagreement reflects different philosophical perspectives on the EU. Leaders who put the stress on “community institutions,” as Schulz and Juncker refer to their own bodies, are furious at Cameron for having “inflicted this mess on us,” as one EU official said. Realists like Tusk argue that the old belief in continually building “ever closer union” is out of step with the political mood across Europe, and the EU needs to scale back its ambitions.
Earlier on Friday morning, Schulz was meeting with leaders of the Parliament’s political groups when Cameron conceded defeat and announced to step back — but only in October, with a new government notifying the EU of the referendum vote only then. The group watched Cameron’s statement together.
“Ja, bin ich im Wald?” (“Am I lost in the woods?”) Schulz asked, using a German expression for incredulous astonishment, and banged his hand on the table, people present in the room said.
Fellow Socialist Gianni Pittella called what the group perceived as British delaying tactics “irresponsible,” and Liberal Guy Verhofstadt said it was “unacceptable.” The center-right European People’s Party leader Manfred Weber said later he had “no sympathy” for the British, saying that “it must be possible to conclude the negotiations within one year.”
Dave & friends
Cameron found more sympathy in his separate phone conversations with Rutte and Tusk on Friday.
Before heading across the road to the Berlaymont for the four presidents’ meeting, Tusk issued a statement that it was “for sure not a moment for hysterical reactions.” Behind the closed doors of Juncker’s office, Rutte reminded the other three that Euroskeptics in the Netherlands had carried April’s referendum on the EU’s closer association deal with Ukraine.
The Dutch vote in national elections next year. The leading Euroskeptic far-right party in the Netherlands on Friday called for a referendum on EU membership.
Eventually, the four agreed to spell out the prefabricated core message in case of Brexit and let Cameron know that he’s expected “to give effect to this decision of the British people as soon as possible, however painful that process may be,” and that “there will be no renegotiation.”
The language was tough but didn’t include any deadline for Britain to invoke Article 50.
If Brussels refuses to engage in any talks directly with Britain on the conditions of an exit until that procedure, it could produce a stalemate that can’t last forever. “The next [EU] budget period will begin in 2019. We’ll have to have clarity by then at the latest” on Britain’s membership, one EU diplomat said. “That means that the Article 50 negotiations will have to start by the end of 2016 at the very latest, with a view to the two-year-period.”
Merkel’s calculations
In striking a softer tone in her remarks this weekened, the German chancellor indicated her desire to keep Cameron “as close as possible,” one source who spoke with her on Friday said. Merkel considers Britain a close economic partner, the source added.
Merkel’s position reflects an argument made by the Leave campaign that large EU exporters like Germany won’t want to hurt their business with the U.K.
So while Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier, a German Social Democrat, called for swift divorce, Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble from Merkel’s own CDU said that the EU was moving toward “constructive divorce negotiations” that could lead to an “association agreement” with Britain, Die Welt and Handelsblatt reported.
Britain on the margins
Whatever approach the EU-27 eventually decide on, Britain’s voice in Brussels has been virtually muted in Brussels in a span of hours.
Jonathan Hill, the British commissioner who oversees the financial services portfolio, resigned on Saturday, leaving the U.K. without a political voice at the Brussels executive. MEPs from the EU-27 are lining up to take over important rapporteur positions from their British colleagues. And Cameron will be allowed at the table of next week’s summit of European leaders only for the first part of the meeting.
In his invitation letter sent out Friday evening, Tusk announced that the 27 remainers will gather for the first time without a British leader. “We will meet informally to discuss the political and practical implications of ‘Brexit,’” he wrote. “First of all, we will discuss the so called ‘divorce process’ as described in Art. 50 of the Treaty.”
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