Image: Max Pixel. Dialogo Chino, All Rights Reserved.
For years, Arnaldo Carneiro stuck to his master plan to contain
deforestation in Brazil. Carneiro’s studies demonstrated the complicity of
importers of Brazilian soybeans in the degradation of the environment.
He
implored them to purchase only from farmers who could guarantee they did not
clear land for cultivation.
The strategy always worked better in Europe. In 2015, seven European
countries signed the Amsterdam Declaration committing to support private sector
initiatives against deforestation in their production chains.
“Europe is a
slightly more conscious market”, says Carneiro, who directs the NGO Global
Canopy. “They are concerned with impacts on the front line”.
Now, however, Carneiro’s strategy has suffered a big setback that has
renewed concerns for Brazilian forests: the US-China trade war.
As the world’s two largest economies began to impose tit-for-tat tariffs on a range of imports in March this year, China hit US soybeans – a heavily traded commodity – with a punitive 25% levy. Since then, Chinese demand for Brazilian soy has spiked.
Trade spat impacts
As the world’s two largest economies began to impose tit-for-tat
tariffs on a range of imports in March this year, China hit US soybeans – a
heavily traded commodity – with a punitive 25% levy. Since then, Chinese demand
for Brazilian soy has spiked.
The trade war has also kick-started a game of musical chairs between
soybean purchasers and producers. Chinese buyers have increasingly switched to
Brazil to avoid the high tariffs imposed on US products.
Meanwhile, European
dealers have flocked to the US as prices slumped for their soybeans, which
flooded the market after losing eager Chinese customers.
Historically, China has accounted for approximately one-third of US
soybean consumption. Chinese people have increasingly stronger purchasing power
and want to eat better.
Soybeans play an important part in food production
since they are fed to Chinese pigs.
In June this year, 37% of soy imported to Europe came from the US, an
explosive increase compared to 9% last year.
At the same time, the volume of
soybeans exported from Brazil to China grew 15% from January to September this
year compared to the same period last year, according to official figures.
Demand was so high that Brazilian reserves have almost run out.
All this could significantly change how international markets push for
less deforestation in Brazil.
Chinese companies tend to be less concerned with the environmental
consequences of meeting their country’s soy demand.
This worries Carneiro, who
regularly talks to Chinese companies about anti-deforestation commitments:
“China is very concerned with the food security of its population”, he
explains. “They are much less concerned with environmental problems in other
countries. What they do not want is to be involved with any illegal activity.”
But clearing natural vegetation is not necessarily illegal. According
to Brazil’s Institute of Forest and Agricultural Management and Certification
(IMAFLORA), there are 103 million hectares of unprotected natural vegetation in
Brazil – land that can be deforested legally.
Carneiro’s work used to involve convincing the Europeans not to
deforest land that even the Brazilian government considered lawful to clear.
But it is different with China.
“Europe wants us to deliver zero deforestation in commodities”,
explains André Nassar, president of the Brazilian Association of Vegetable Oil
Industries (ABIOVE), which includes major traders like Bunge and Cargill. “The
Chinese will not ask us for more than we are delivering now”.
Though varying standards between buyers of Brazilian soy are a
concern, some organisations are fighting to close the gap.
Rose Niu, who leads
the department of conservation at the Paulson Institute in Washington DC,
acknowledges the difference between Europe and China, but says efforts are
underway to drive change.
“In the past three years, several organisations
(including our institute) have been working with soybean traders for China to
adopt more stringent environmental requirements in trade with South American
countries”, Niu wrote in an e-mail.
“I hope that traders in China will do as
good a job as the Europeans in the near future”.
Demand drives expansion
The trade war has encouraged Brazilian producers to increase production
in order to absorb as much of the excess demand as possible.
This pressure
could result in further deforestation, since soy yields are increased by
expanding the planted area.
Brazil is about to take the US’ place as the largest producer of soybeans in the world. There are 33 million hectares of soybean plantations – an area equivalent to the size of Malaysia. This is almost triple the area used two decades ago.
Brazil is about to take the US’ place as the largest producer of
soybeans in the world. There are 33 million hectares of soybean plantations –
an area equivalent to the size of Malaysia. This is almost triple the area used
two decades ago.
Brazil is not the only country in the region facing pressure to
produce. Argentina and Paraguay are also major producers of soybeans. In 2016,
the three countries combined produced nearly half the soy consumed worldwide.
Pedro Henriques Pereira, a business intelligence adviser at the
Brazilian Confederation of Agriculture and Livestock (CNA), has already
detected some excitement in the market about expanding soy production.
But for
now, the confederation is advising a cautious approach for producers who want
to invest with an eye to Chinese demand.
“This movement creates major
uncertainty. It guarantees a short-term increase, but there is a risk in the
medium and long term that something could happen and the producer could end up
with a lot of soy on his hands”, says Pereira.
Pereira foresees a less significant increase in planted area, around
4%. But the market suggests the potential increase is greater.
For example, SLC
Agrícola, one of the Brazilian agricultural sector giants, announced a 7%
expansion in its area planted with soybeans for the coming season.
“Our main concern is that creating such a large demand in a short
space of time can cause deforestation and conversion of natural vegetation,”
says Edegar de Oliveira Rosa, Coordinator of the Food and Agriculture Programme
at WWF-Brazil.
For the most part, the Amazon is protected from this hunger for more
planted areas. Since 2006, a pact called the Soy Moratorium between producers
and environmental activists has prevented the deforestation of tropical forests
to produce soybeans.
The danger lies mostly in the Cerrado, a savanna-like biome with rich
biodiversity that is essential for balancing Brazil’s ecosystem.
The Cerrado
occupies 22% of Brazil’s territory. Unlike Amazonia, it does not have
equivalent legal protections. It has been the target of major expansion in
agriculture and is today Brazil’s most threatened biome.
Soy cultivation is
overwhelmingly concentrated in this region. Since the 1970s, the Cerrado has
lost nearly half of its natural vegetation to expansion of agriculture and
pastures.
According to data collected by Trase, a global platform that monitors
commodity production chains, an estimated 3.5 million hectares of soybeans have
been planted in areas of the Cerrado that were covered by native vegetation 15
years ago.
Land in the Cerrado is significantly cheaper than in other regions
where the soy industry is more established, like southern Brazil.
This means
that it is not the planting of soybeans itself that concerns environmentalists,
but also real estate speculation by large rural property owners.
Landowners may
try to capitalise on the expanding market to clear land and prepare it for
farming, thereby obtaining higher prices.
According to Carneiro, productivity and even planted area should only
increase on already degraded land, thereby eliminating the need to deforest.
But simple economics indicate that the danger remains: “They clear the forests
because it is cheaper”, he explains.
However, ABIOVE’s Nassar plays down the risks. He says that even
though deforestation is still a problem, it is much less serious than it used
to be.
Data from ABIOVE show that deforestation caused by soybean farming
decreased from 27% per planted hectare between 2002 and 2007 to 7% over the
past four years.
“We support having no more deforestation in the chain”,
explains Nassar. “But we have to see this as a process of transition”.
This article was previously published by Diálogo Chino and can be read here
