Francois Hollande welcomes his South Sudanese counterpart Salva Kiir Mayardit, to the Elysee summit for peace and safety in Africa in Paris, December, 2013. Stephane Lemouton/Press Association. All rights reserved.The world expects South Sudan’s political landscape
to descend into anarchy at any moment. Unmoved by the worrying signs of
political and economic inefficiencies, some South Sudanese political elite are
still pursuing the exact same strategies of divisive politics which triggered
political instability and economic uncertainty in the first place.
There is a growing appeal to the outside world to
rescue South Sudan from itself by activists and academics who are calling for
diverging external interventions. Why should the outside world bear any responsibility
to restore political and economic order in an environment where those responsible
for political and economic disorders aren’t yet scared enough to take a very
different direction? The war was planned and executed without first hearing the
opinions of external actors and its cessation as well as coping with its
destructive fall-out should be placed squarely on the shoulders of the South
Sudanese elite and the governed masses.
The world has been faced with the challenge of
dealing with these leaders or looking for other willing stakeholders to work
with. The international community cannot succeed in halting the war machine in
South Sudan without involving local actors. The fire will only be put out
through a collaborative effort that involves actors both international and
local who command a large following. These local actors are rational and they
want to survive politically too at the end of this elite rivalry.
But the way the international community has been
approaching them makes the whole thing a zero sum game. They are made to see
the end of the conflict as the end of their political lives. Surely a better
basis for appeal would be that everyone benefits, including them, when the
conflict is ended: if they change direction they will not only save the economy
and many innocent lives, but also resuscitate their own legitimacy.
The outside world has been treating the governed
masses as a vulnerable entity in need of help both materially and in terms of
voice. Sadly, because this has always been how the world has approached affairs
of developing countries, the governed masses accept the role of innocent
bystanders in the activities taking place in their countries. The governed masses
must prioritize access to food and physical security over supporting elite
members on ethnic/clan-based lines, because the elite rivalry is set to dock
the boat at the shores of hell.
Backing
off from conflict
But this has to be a process. It has to begin
somewhere and then get moved onto a larger scale. I propose that the entire aid
to South Sudan ought to be redirected to support entrepreneurship activities
among locals including building practical skills. Such priorities ought to be
given to projects that serve people in rural areas.
I am proposing that both the locals and the ruling
elite need to start doing something while waiting for that external help to
defuse rising tensions, since this can take a long time. We lose nothing nor do
we contradict other solutions by appealing to the local actors to change
direction. It is better to try anything to seal the leakage, even covering them
with bare hands while waiting for the external trusted technicians whose
attention seems to be spread thin.
President Kiir does possess the power to bring
about a ceasefire in places threatened by conflict now. The fact that he did
not act to prevent atrocities in the past is not a reason to close all doors on
continuing the dialogue with him and appealing to him to play his part now to
end the war. His supporters need to make him see the incentive for changing his
management of armed men. I think the western perspective of seeing the whole
government of South Sudan and its military establishment as uncaring is very
counterproductive.
President Salva Kiir needs to reverse the extreme position
currently maintained by some of his inner circle. The President needs to make
drastic compromises with opposition groups. His government needs to deal
genuinely with the SPLM/IO to help the country back away from conflict. The
SPLM/IO should be represented in Juba by a choice from Pagaak, who is not seen
by the Nuer constituent as a sell-out. President Kiir can easily reach such a
compromise with Dr. Riek Machar over the phone.
The government must end military campaigns and
invest in dialogues with affected communities. Any military presence in
Equatoria needs to be scaled down drastically so that the SPLA stay in
designated military barracks and the military leaders need to engage the communities
through dialogue in western Equatoria, eastern Equatoria, and central
Equatoria. Key leaders from Equatoria who opposed the government such as Gov.
Bakosoro must be engaged through direct dialogue with the presidency so that
they help calm tensions between communities and the army in places like Yei,
among other towns where tensions, hatred and fear are high.
Food
Use humanitarian food inflows to impact food
prices. An agreement can be reached with INGOs importing massive food inflows
into South Sudan so that this will have a direct impact on the food prices. The
government can work with competing local traders who could design two tracks
for dealing with this: (a) short-term is for traders to procure items and make
them available at 10 or 28 distribution centers and then the INGOs can buy
directly from these stores rather than importing food directly from the outside
world (because the INGOs will have to get South Sudanese pounds to buy food,
they will be forced to take their dollars to the banks to get South Sudanese
pounds) and (b) long-term: a good number of traders can be loaned government
machineries to produce food within 9 months to 18 months and so instead of
importing food the INGOs can directly buy these food items for their needs.
Stop importing red-meat and fish, build two
processing plants in Juba. The government needs to set aside $10 million USD to
build fish and meat processing plants in Juba and this will save a lot of
dollars that are needed to import fish from Dubai and Kampala.
Use the dry season to wage a battle against food
insecurity in the Sudd: The government needs to invest $10 million USD in a
temporary food production project on the bank of the Nile from Mangala, Jameza,
Bor, areas around Ziam-ziam and Jonglei village, Angany e Kuach, Shambe, Adok,
among other areas in Malakal and other places within the Sudd that dry up
between January through April.
Corns can be grown and harvested in three months
and other products such as Sukuma Wiki among others can be grown within that
period and this will cut down the demand for dollars to supply such products
from Uganda and Kenya.
