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“Dictatorships
foster oppression, dictatorships foster servitude, dictatorships foster
cruelty; more abominable is the fact that they foster idiocy.” – Jorge Luis Borges
Brazil´s
presidential elections next month will be one of the biggest tests the
country´s democracy has ever faced. Aside from choosing the country´s
president, the members of the lower house of Congress and two-thirds of the Senate,
as well as governors and state legislators, Brazilians will decide if the
ballot remains stronger than the bullets.
Corruption, inequality and a lack of security
have undermined the political institutions’ ability to convince many citizens
that democracy is worth defending, opening the doors for a nightmare from the
past.
An avowed admirer of Augusto Pinochet, Bolsonaro wants to increase the role of the military in government and to radically reform the Supreme Court.
Voters will have to decide on October 7 between a democratic, albeit
dysfunctional system, and an authoritarian deviation that openly flirts with
violence, torture and censorship.
A sinking democracy
Most
Brazilians are not happy with their democracy – it´s easy to understand why. A recession in
2014, triggered by fiscal irresponsibility and misguided economic policies,
left thirteen million people unemployed and cut the country´s GDP by 8.6% in
two years.
An investigation into money laundering, known as Lava Jato, uncovered an intricate scheme of political and
corporate illegal payments that hindered citizens’ confidence in their political
system.
Moreover, Dilma Rousseff´s impeachment two years ago fuelled social polarization,
which Michel Temer was unable, or only too happy not to quell.
The
judiciary struggle against corruption is proving to be effective, hunting down
corruption and holding Brazil´s political class accountable. Politicians across
the political spectrum have been indicted, from local elected officials to
former presidents.
However, this overdue investigation is also shattering the citizens’
faith in democracy, opening the doors for the performance of superstar
judges who tend to overstep their marks and put their political motivations and
sympathies over justice.
Corruption
and insecurity, combined with high unemployment rates, make a dangerous cocktail – particularly before
elections. And as the citizens’ confidence in their political institutions
reaches a new low,
many fear that Jair Bolsonaro may have a chance to achieve the unthinkable: a
return to military rule in a country that freed itself from the shackles of dictatorship only three decades ago.
A sombre nostalgia
As
memories of oppression begin to fade, many Brazilians believe that the only way
to fix the system is to bring the military back to power. Unaware or unmoved by
the crimes committed by the military dictatorship that ruled the country from 1964 to 1985, many have decided it is time
to give Jair Bolsonaro “a chance”.
The
presidential far-right candidate is a former army captain and a polarising figure in Brazil. He is known for his comments against women and minorities, as well as for being an apologist for military
dictatorship and torture.
Bolsonaro
served under a regime that used systematic repression to maintain “law and
order” and was responsible for the registered killing of one hundred and ninety-one Brazilians and the “disappearance”
of another two hundred and forty-three.
Still, he nurtures a longing for a time
that many Brazilian would prefer to forget and opposes calling Brazil’s
military regime a dictatorship.
In
1993, he called for the closing of Congress and claimed Brazil would “never resolve serious
national problems with this irresponsible democracy”. Later, in 1999, he called
for a civil war that should kill thirty thousand people – including Fernando Henrique Cardoso, the president
at the time.
An avowed admirer of Augusto Pinochet, Bolsonaro wants to increase the role of the military
in government and to radically reform the Supreme Court, undermining checks and balances in the process.
After
nearly thirty years in Congress, he currently represents the Social Liberal
Party, a small party with just eight out of the five hundred and thirteen seats
in the lower house.
However, his campaign is mostly centred on himself as a
political figure with a following of 8.5 million in social media, which he galvanizes through his outbursts against
legal abortion, drug liberalization and gun-control.
Bolsonaro’s
support base includes a portion of the educated middle classes and those living
in small towns, especially in the South and the Midwest. His law and order discourse against criminality has convinced many Brazilians that he is the right
man for the job.
According to some recent studies, however, he is doing better in the states
where corruption is the voters’ number one concern: many Brazilians perceive
Bolsonaro as the anti-corruption messiah
who has come to free Brazil from the Workers’ Party.
An unpredictable outcome
Back
in 2016, few imagined that Jair Bolsonaro could become a serious contender for
the presidency. The worst recession in the country’s history, Dilma Rousseff’s
impeachment and the lack of confidence in political institutions help explain how
a far-right politician who champions intolerance, hate, racism and militarism
is Brazil's front-running presidential candidate today.
Still, the
fragmentation of the Brazilian electoral system makes it very difficult to
predict what will happen on October 7.
Lula
da Silva remains the country most popular politician. He led all the polls, but
he is currently serving a twelve-year sentence for corruption and was barred by the highest electoral court from standing at the forthcoming presidential
election in compliance with the current electoral law – which was passed during
his presidency.
While centre-left supporters may indeed transfer their votes from Lula to Haddad, most polls indicate that millions of Brazilians have not made up their minds yet and experts caution that potential transfer of votes is hard to measure.
The former president decided to appeal against
the decision to the Supreme Court and to the United Nations Human Rights Committee, what most experts believe was a strategy to
exploit voters’ sympathy and successfully transfer his votes to Fernando
Haddad, his vice-president, who replaced him as presidential candidate on September 11.
Haddad,
a former mayor of São Paulo and former minister
of education, was responsible
for expanding the country´s education system, building new universities and
opening their doors to students from different social and racial backgrounds.
Although
he lacks Lula´s charisma and influence, he represents a new generation of
progressive political leaders which Brazil desperately needs if it is to put
the past behind and guarantee cultural, economic and social progress.
But
while centre-left supporters may indeed transfer their votes from Lula to Haddad, most polls indicate that millions of
Brazilians have not made up their minds yet and experts caution that potential
transfer of votes is hard to measure.
Polls show Bolsonaro leading in the first-round with 26% but losing against
most candidates in the expected runoff. Trailing behind are Fernando Haddad
(PT) and Ciro Gomes (PDT), a former leftist governor of Ceará, with 13%,
Geraldo Alckmin (PSDB), a centrist former governor of São Paulo, with 9%, and
Marina Silva, from the Sustainability Network Party, with 8%.
Democracy dies in darkness
The
stakes couldn’t be higher in Brazil. Its future depends on its citizens´ responsibility
and their commitment to democratic values. In the last years, most politicians
have failed the country and have been driven by their own interests.
Others who
had come to believe that they were demigods have been brought down from their
pedestals. But democracy must prevail if the country is to prevent future
generations from growing up in darkness and repeating the mistakes of the past.
The
knife attack on Bolsonaro last week was, in this sense, an attack against
democracy highlighting the fact that violence has been reintroduced in
Brazilian politics.
As emotions and nostalgia, hatred and fear appear to permeate everyday life and reason is increasingly unable to moderate political debate, few pundits venture to predict the result of the elections.
Most candidates find it difficult to accept the legitimacy
of their opponents, and the conflict between left and right has
reached dangerous levels. In March, Marielle Franco, a city councillor and human rights defender, was
murdered in Rio de Janeiro. A few days later, Lula da Silva´s campaign bus was
shot at in southern Brazil.
Today,
separating rationality from emotion is becoming almost impossible in Brazil –
and this is dangerous. To a martyr in
jail, we must now add another one in hospital who won’t waste an opportunity to profit from the situation.
So, as emotions
and nostalgia, hatred and fear appear to permeate everyday life and reason is
increasingly unable to moderate political debate, few pundits venture to
predict the result of the elections.
Yet, the fire that engulfed the National Museum in Rio de Janeiro, the biggest natural history museum in Latin
America, ought to remind the country about its past – sometimes bright, sometimes
dark.
Remembering that Bolsonaro represents the latter
should be enough for most Brazilians to do the right thing and vote against him.
